Nearly 40% of all Americans intend to purchase on Black Friday, which kicks off the holiday shopping season.
Holiday sales are already likely to set new records this year, with the National Retail Federation forecasting overall holiday spending of $979.5 billion to $989 billion in November and December, up from $955.6 billion in 2023. That is a 3% gain.
Since 2008, holiday shopping has grown steadily, with 2021 witnessing the biggest increase, up 12% from the prior year.
“The economy remains fundamentally healthy and continues to maintain its momentum heading into the final months of the year,” NRF President and CEO Matthew Shay said in a statement. “The winter holidays are an important tradition to American families, and their capacity to spend will continue to be supported by a strong job market and wage growth.”
While Black Friday and Cyber Monday will see Americans looking for deals both online and in-store, holiday shopping has already begun, with many companies launching deals early. Some started as early as mid-October.
Pre-Thanksgiving sales were especially strong this year since Thanksgiving fell later in the month, cutting the holiday shopping season five days short of the previous year.
This year’s surge will be driven primarily by online shopping, however, many Generation Z and millennial customers are also expected to use social media for shopping and gift suggestions.
In 2023, only 34% of total holiday shopping ($221.8 billion) was done online. According to an Adobe estimate, internet sales this holiday season will increase by 8.4% over last year, reaching $240.8 billion.
However, in-store shopping remains the most popular way to shop, particularly among older generations.
Retailers are concerned about the economy, forecasting that shoppers would be more budget-conscious this year due to ongoing inflation.
“Consumers tell us their budgets remain stretched, and they’re shopping carefully as they work to overcome the cumulative impact of multiple years of price inflation,” Target CEO Brian Cornell said during an earnings call last week.
Many firms, including Target, continue to forecast a significant increase in sales.
Amazon announced intentions to hire 250,000 Christmas workers this season, while Target wants to add 100,000 seasonal employees.
Even AI will see an increase this holiday season, with 40% of shoppers planning to utilize generative AI to help them identify the greatest discounts, specific products online, and brand recommendations.
