Not just Central Florida, but most of the United States already see cold weather beginning to set in. Our devastating and erratic storm season just finished.
Still, the two seasonal stages share something. Our ENSO—that is, whether we are in an El Niño or a La Niña—very much affects them.
In Florida, a lot of the local residents hate chilly weather. We all need a brief vacation from what feels to be record-breaking heat and shockingly high humidity. Naturally, though, many Floridians still wish they could enjoy outdoor pursuits such beach time, dining al fresco, and hiking.
Many of us, especially around holidays, also enjoy the lower temps. Thanksgiving Day was quite pleasant, but immediately following it another dome of cold air slammed across the state like a tidal wave.
How does all of this change your general view of the upcoming winter months? Let’s slightly review the science.
Though ocean temperatures in the Pacific areas closest to the equator define the El Niño Southern Oscillation, or ENSO, it has a major influence on world climate. Not only on everyone seeing our broadcast or video but also on individuals living in Florida, Canada, Europe, Africa, and possibly Siberia depending on what happens in the Pacific Ocean.
Particularly, the El Niño Southern Oscillation shapes and influences both warm and cold conditions all throughout the northern hemisphere.
This is accomplished by changing the route of particular jet streams, air masses, and so-called “semi-permanent” pressure centers. semi-permanent, meaning that for most of the year a low or high pressure system will remain in the same general location, maybe with sporadic times of strengthening or weakening excluded.
Every climate shows waves or cycles. One day, the trend of North America will surely mirror that of Asia. Furthermore limitless and constant worldwide are the jet streams that circle the highest latitudes of the Earth.
It reminds one of the adage, “What goes around comes around.”
At this stage ENSO becomes involved. The Southeast experiences extreme weather during an El Niño winter, which we had the “pleasure” of last year. Among our main jet branches, the subtropical component gains strength during an El Niño. It passes throughout the southern plains, a lot of Northern Mexico, the Southeast United States, and then veers sharply south.
The jet shapes storm systems—low pressure zones that help distribute air and temperatures over the country. This helps to explain why north Florida had numerous intense storms, severe weather events, and tornado outbreaks.
A slow change toward a La Niña does not totally exclude this. Still, it will be really important going forward. Longer stretches of drier air, clearer sky, and inevitably a drought in place of clouds, rain, and cooler temperatures.
Among the most important temporary variables is the drought factor. Though the storm season presents, we need be ready for dry spells to avoid running out of water and losing our gardens, grass, and vegetation.
Nor will the slow change into a La Niña be permanent. Strange as it sounds, we will most likely come out from La Niña and follow a pretty neutral pattern in time for the 2025 hurricane season. More will be discussed on that later.
